Together with Dr Paolo Davini, a physicist colleague from Italy, I analysised the spreading of COVID-19, fitting the daily deaths associated to COVID-19 per England macro-areas.

Important disclaimer: the analysis, inspired by a similar one that Paolo has done for several Italian regions, is a very crude fitting with Gompertz functions and it is not based on any specific or rigorous model that epidemiologists use. It is a simple exercise of statistical fitting and forecast, based on the distribution law derived by Benjamin Gompertz (1779-1865) based on logistic models. It is paramount to understand that every mathematical model has always its limits of validity, based on the assumptions used to derive it. Also, reality is not perfect, so even the most sophisticated epidemic model will fail at some point. Please remember this whenever you read, produce, or share any scientific results.

Here you find the link with the COVID-19 analysis per macro-areas: